BJ Penn is going to defeat Georges St-Pierre. I don't care about the size difference. The five day training holiday does not bother me. The lack of quality training partners doesn't worry me. BJ Penn is going to defeat Georges St-Pierre.
I was firmly in the GSP camp for awhile because I envisioned the second fight going much like the first. Penn would control the stand-up until he hurt GSP, at which point it would become a wrestling match. St-Pierre's natural instinct always reverts to wrestling. It's his biggest strength and no one at 170 lbs is anywhere near his talent level. The problem with this is the fight will be five rounds.
It's very difficult to control an opponent for five rounds, let alone someone as dangerous as Penn. It would impress me more if St-Pierre could control Penn for five rounds and win a unanimous decision, than if he TKO'd him on the ground. Eventually the fighters will be standing and I believe Penn will hurt him enough to take over and win the fight. There is the possibility St-Pierre can get him down and finish from the top. If Matt Hughes did it, I'm willing to say it is a possibility. I just don't think St-Pierre will be able to do it. Penn is better at fighting off his back than St-Pierre is on his feet. To me this is what the fight comes down to. I believe more in Penn's advantage on the feet than St-Pierre's on the ground. He can finish easier than GSP can on the ground.
Since their first fight in March of 2006, St-Pierre has gone 5-1. His opponents were some of the best Welterweights in the world, but none of them were dangerous strikers. Hughes, Serra, Koscheck, Hughes again, Serra again, Fitch...these are not fighters you worry about on your feet. It should also be noted Serra (who is smaller than BJ Penn and far less adept at striking) managed to drop St-Pierre and TKO him. People can write it off as luck, but if St-Pierre was as invincible as everyone claims, he never would have lost that fight. He has a weakness and it's striking defense. Penn is going to win and the end will come from a strike.
(Yes, I'm prepared to take the abuse from St-Pierre gaggers if Penn loses)