According to Tatame, Paulo Filho will make the move to Light Heavyweight when he enters the UFC. Some might see this as a logical move for a fighter who had major issues making the limit at Middleweight. I think it is a clear case of a desperate fighter. Filho had tons of momentum going into the second fight with Chael Sonnen. He was the classic case of a fighter who is a name instead of a competitor. Fans knew the name Paulo Filho and built it into some thing great. Meanwhile, the actual competitor was no where near world class status. In addition to being overrated, Filho suffers from mental problems and did not have a solid camp around him.
His move to Light Heavyweight is a cop out. He does not want to keep himself in top condition. He would rather eat what he wants and compete at 205 lbs. Filho is 5'8, and that is being generous. His reach is poor for a Middleweight. Sonnen is not known for being a devastating striker and he stood on the outside all night picking him apart. Imagine what the bigger fighters at 205 lbs will do to him. In my opinion, he's not even a top ten UFC Light Heavyweight. The move is a mistake and it will hurt his career.
The other issue I see is the vindictive nature of the UFC. They are not quick to forgive fighters who they feel wronged them. Showing up seven pounds overweight when you are one of the main draws at an event is like wiping your ass on Dana White's head. I'd be very surprised if Filho gets an easy welcome to the UFC. They will likely put him into the cage with a difficult opponent (how about Luis Cane?) to test his meddle and see if he can overcome the odds.
It is too bad because Filho was expected to make major waves in the UFC as a Middleweight. Watching him fight as a 205 pound meatball just won't be the same.